flip-flop buckle propagation is a special phenomenon of dynamic buckle propagation，large plastic deformation occurs once initiated, and even lead to tube rupture. To explore the critical condition of flip-flop buckle propagation initiation, Python language was used to develop the pre-processing module of ABAQUS to finish the complex modeling process.?Then the critical value of flip-flop buckle propagation initiation (Pf) was invested based on this numerical model. Inertia loads, geometry, material and the contact non-linearity were taken into consideration in our analysis. After verification of the numerical model, sensitivity analysis was performed to study the influence of diameter to thickness ratio (D/t), material parameters including Young's modulus (E), material hardening parameters (n) and yield stress (σy) on Pf, the results shows that: the main factors affect Pf are D/t and σy, the Influence of E and n are negligible. Besides, the response surface and empirical formula of Pf were given according to the sensitivity analysis results, which provide guidance for practical application in ocean engineering.